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Op-Ed NOVEMBER 20, 2026 | The Indian Eye 12

After the midterm setback,

will Trump back off from Iran?

Will the White House change course? The answer matters not just for America’s

political future but also for global energy security, Asia and India’s strategic interests.

ASHISH K SINGH

he biggest casualty of Ameri-
ca’s midterm elections could
Tbe Donald Trump’s Iran policy.
The Republican setback has exposed
a contradiction at the heart of his
presidency: a leader who promised
to end America’s foreign wars is now
presiding over a costly conflict that is
damaging his domestic political stand-
ing, unsettling energy markets and
testing the loyalty of his own political
base.
The most revealing reaction came
from Vice-President JD Vance, who
directly blamed the war for the Re-
publican defeat. His public assessment
was significant not merely because he
is the second most powerful person in
the administration, but because he is Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump had digitally and remotely signed an MoU in June (ANI file photo)
widely seen as a potential Republican
presidential candidate in 2028. Vance Congressman Thomas Massie, failed existing annual funding arrangement Hormuz, through which a substantial
had expressed reservations about mil- to advance in the House on Novem- while continuing arms sales and other share of global energy supplies passes.
itary intervention in Iran even before ber 10. The Associated Press reported security assistance. The move marks a The International Energy Agency
the conflict began. His latest interven- that lawmakers voted 211-204 to send departure from the traditional Amer- has repeatedly highlighted the strate-
tion suggests that he believes the war the resolution back to committee. ican approach, although it does not gic importance of the strait to global
has become a political liability for the While the initiative was unlikely amount to abandoning Israel. oil markets. Any prolonged disruption
MAGA movement. to succeed, the political significance The existing US-Israel memoran- can increase crude prices, raise trans-
Trump has acknowledged the lies elsewhere. With Democrats ex- dum of understanding provides for portation costs and intensify inflation-
electoral consequences without ac- pected to take control of the House in $3.8 billion annually in military assis- ary pressures across Asian economies.
cepting responsibility. In remarks to January, the administration will face tance through September 2028. Any There is also the question of
Fox News, he conceded that Iran was greater congressional scrutiny over change would therefore require clar- connectivity. Iran’s Chabahar port is
“a piece of it”, but insisted that he military spending, war powers and the ification of the existing commitments. central to India’s ambitions to devel-
had done the right thing. There was conduct of operations. The political explanation is more op alternative access to Afghanistan
no apology, no admission of strategic Trump may retain considerable compelling than a sudden strategic and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
miscalculation and no indication that authority as commander-in-chief, but reassessment. Opposition to uncondi- Continued instability makes these
he was prepared to abandon his ob- sustaining an expensive conflict with- tional American support for Israel has plans more difficult and increases the
jectives. out a clear political objective will be- grown among sections of the Demo- strategic costs of India’s regional en-
That distinction is important. come increasingly difficult. cratic Party and within Trump’s own gagement.
Trump recognises that the war is un- Vance’s criticism, meanwhile, MAGA constituency. Many voters The danger is that an electorally
popular, but he does not want to ap- raises another question: is he genu- who supported his promise of putting weakened Trump could become more
pear to have been forced into retreat inely seeking a change in policy or po- America first are increasingly uncom- unpredictable. He might conclude
by voters, political opponents or his sitioning himself for the post-Trump fortable with American money and that a dramatic military victory is nec-
own vice-president. Republican leadership? His political military resources being committed to essary to restore his authority and si-
The tensions are also visible with- future depends on maintaining the another Middle Eastern conflict. lence critics within his administration.
in the national security establishment. support of Trump’s voters while dis- For Asia, an end to the Iran war Trump therefore faces a choice
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, one tancing himself from decisions that would be more than a diplomatic de- between negotiating an exit and risk-
of the strongest public defenders of could damage the party. velopment. It could provide consider- ing another escalation. Neither option
the military campaign, has faced ques- Trump’s changing position on able economic relief. India is particu- guarantees political success. Trump’s
tions over its conduct, civilian casual- financial assistance to Israel offers larly vulnerable. Importing nearly 90 Iran policy may have become a do-
ties and the administration’s broader another indication of the shifting per cent of its crude oil requirements, mestic political problem. Its conse-
strategy. An impeachment initiative political calculations in Washington. it remains exposed to disruptions quences, however, will be felt far be-
against Hegseth, led by Republican He has announced plans to end the in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of yond America’s borders.

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